Future of Global Supply Chains

Over recent decades, global supply chains have grown in scale, speed, and complexity. They underpin modern commerce and are vital to the UK’s prosperity and security. Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, have highlighted that supply chains are complex systems, with many interdependencies,inter-dependencies, and are vulnerable to systemic shocks.  shocks. 

What shocks and trends might global supply chains face in the future and how might they change in response?  response? 

The Future of Global Supply Chains in the UK is a cross-government Foresight Project which will help decision-makers across HM Government build resilient supply chains and safeguard growthcritical andimports. prosperity sustainably. We are using the latest analytical and scientific evidence to identify vulnerabilities and develop avenues to long-term resilience.  resilience. 

The Future of Global Supply Chains in the UK Foresight Project aimswill to:  be: 

Provide

Providing a robust evidence base on the critical long-term uncertainties impactingfacing global supply chains.  

By engaging with our network of experts and senior officials across HM Government, we planhave toidentified identifya set of issues that are both uncertain in their future development and strategically important for the resilience of global supply chains out to 2040.  2040. The selected issues fall into two categories: climate and environmental factors, and geopolitical uncertainties.   

Develop

Developing coherent scenarios that consider plausible outcomes for these uncertainties and how they could interact.    

Taking the environmental and geopolitical uncertainties and projecting how they could play out in the future, we planhave todeveloped develop four plausible but deliberately stretching future scenarios,scenarios. outliningEach scenario outlines different possibilities for how global trade might look in 2040.  2040. 

Use

Stress scenariostest toa explorediverse potentialset vulnerabilitiesof tocase UKstudy supply chains   

WeThe proposescenarios usingcan thebe scenariosused by policymakers and decision-makers to betterexplore understanda potentialrange vulnerabilitiesof inlong-term theoutcomes, UK’sinform supplystrategic chains.planning, Ourand intentionassess isthe torobustness supportof policymakersdifferent andsupply decision-makerschains acrossunder uncertain conditions. We will support HM Government in exploringapplying athe rangescenarios ofwhere long-termuseful. outcomes,  

Use informingquantitative strategicanalysis planning,to represent the scenarios and assessingprovide thefurther robustnessstress testing . 

We will build models of the supply chains underof plausibleselected futurecase conditions.studies showing how they currently operate. We arewill consideringthen data-drivenproject approachesthe existing network structures to examinethe future to show different possibilities for how global trade could evolve by 2040 under different scenarios. Finally, we will measure the resilience of these supply chains mightby respondmodelling the propagation of shocks under different futures. This will help to aidentify varietywhere ofthe futureUK conditions.   might need to protect its supply chains.    

WeThe case studies we have chosen are aimingcompound semiconductors, phosphorous compounds and electric vehicle batteries. This will help identify vulnerabilities, opportunities, and areas the UK may wish to bringtake action to ensure future resilience. We then aim to expand this approach by working with policymakers to test supply chains relevant to their priorities.

A Foresight report bringing together these findings inis aplanned Foresightfor reportpublication on GOV.UK byin springNovember 2026. 2025.

For more information, please email email foresight@go-science.gov.uk.